By Dr. Chuck Kelley
Avoiding uncomfortable issues does not make them disappear. The Southern Baptist Convention is in decline and has been for several years. Its survival is not in question. The SBC may become a shadow of its present self, but it is likely to be around doing wonderful things with some amazing churches long after you and I are gone. “Decline” means the SBC is no longer pushing back the darkness. The darkness is pushing us back. Decline means the Convention is losing ground it had already gained, with fewer churches relative to the population today, and those fewer churches have fewer members, fewer people attending worship, and average only half as many baptisms per church as we did in 2010. The SBC is becoming a smaller, not larger, presence in America and the world.
That the Southern Baptist Convention is in decline is not any individual’s fault. Looking for someone to blame is a waste of time. Decline is the natural way of all things, human and organizational. Examples abound. Decline, however, can be deferred. Pilots keep an eye on their instruments as they fly, knowing that winds aloft will blow them off course unless in-flight corrections are made. Likewise, the winds of decline are unavoidable, but strategic adjustments can be made to keep the effects of decline at bay. Those effects will become inevitable only if no adjustments are made to offset decline or if the adjustments made are ineffective.
Decline brings many consequences making it extremely difficult to counter in an organization like the SBC. Two of the worst consequences are a profound change of expectations for the future and a major shift of resourcing priorities. Together they make the reversal of decline unlikely but not impossible.
The story of the SBC since World War II is a cavalcade of growth and success. Southern Baptists learned to expect good news and steady progress as the Convention expanded into all fifty states and became a larger, more impactful presence in the world. Then came decline, turning those expectations upside down. Traditional statistical markers trended downward consistently, producing less progress to report. A new question shaped SBC reports: What is working well even if we are not moving forward? Bright spots and heartwarming stories replaced news of Great Commission advances. Losing ground against the rising tide of lostness became the new normal, gradually breeding a loss of interest in growth. The North American Mission Board may be underperforming on an epic scale, but no matter. They are still producing bright spots and heartwarming stories. If growth is not expected, major efforts to reverse growing losses are unnecessary. Other issues took the spotlight as Southern Baptists become content being a smaller presence in the world. Readers wanting an overview of SBC data can click this link to an earlier blog with Convention statistics in several areas.
Adding to the impact of reduced expectations is a shift in the strategic allocation of resources. As the consequences of decline mount, non-missional expenses tend to rise and income tends to fall. More available resources have to be used to address the consequences of decline. Cash flow often becomes an issue. Selling assets, downsizing staff, and reducing programs are rarely the prelude to new initiatives and aggressive approaches to turning things around. When decline is ignored and allowed to strengthen its grip, time makes these consequences ever more difficult to overcome.
For the Southern Baptist Convention, it is time to choose. The choice made will set the stage for what lies ahead. Will Southern Baptists choose the path of permanent strategic retreat from Great Commission advance as did Methodists, or will they choose to engage in the fierce battles necessary to overcome decline and seek momentum for fresh growth? Let me be very clear on three points. One, no large family of churches in the history of American Christianity has ever overcome decline and found ways to grow again, once decline got as deeply rooted as it is now in the SBC. Two, the battles necessary to overcome this stage of decline will be very difficult, making the Conservative Resurgence and its battle for a return to theological orthodoxy seem like a walk in the park. Three, avoiding a choice is another way to choose decline. Decline has all the momentum.
Why should the SBC enter into an epic battle with decline? Difficult and unprecedented are not synonyms for impossible. I want to be a member of the first major family of churches in the history of American Christianity to overcome decline and to bring glory to God by recapturing His founding purpose and mission for Southern Baptists. For His glory and for the sake of those who are lost and face an eternity in hell, I pray we will enter the fight to break the grip of decline on the SBC with our whole hearts!
Personal Update: I am at work on my first major projects since the unexpected Homegoing of my Beloved. They are The Great Commission Journey of Southern Baptists and Travel Notes on Grieving. I am well, and I thank you for your prayers.
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